If the PO8 is a big market hit...

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wiss
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Post by wiss » Sun Aug 26, 2007 12:44 am

it will be a huge success if it sells between 3,000 and 5000 units...
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Post by johnb » Sun Aug 26, 2007 10:04 am

When I worked at Korg, the word was that if a keyboard product didn't sell at least 12,000 units, it was not a success. The first version of the Wavestation looked like it was only going to sell 4000-5000, and so there was added pressure from the US sales department to add piano and drum samples to the synth, to make it more 'palatable' to the US market, which we did (even though my position on the Wavestation as product manager was that Korg already had products that fulfilled that kind of market, and that we wanted to 'step out' and make a statement with something really new and distinctive). In the end, I think we sold about 12,000 pieces total, so it worked out OK, but I'm still not convinced it was the addition of piano or drums that made the difference, but rather, that it was that the thing was a unique box which produced sounds you could only get by having a Wavestation. To me, that was the key....

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Post by Mixolydian » Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:18 pm

DSI did a pretty good job keeping the Prophet 08 under wraps, so the big 3 couldn't have a head start like if they'd announced it at NAMM or Frankfurt. The BoomChik acted as a red herring even though it's a real product in delevopement.

Still, I think someone in Japan is working on one. Japan has an interesting way of targeting and securing market share amongst Japnese owned businesses, so I'd say at least one of them is working on a polyphonic analog. I doubt that's it's anything like the new Prophet with it's all analog signal path, but rather something simpler, something with DCOs and digital everything else borrowed from an existing synth. Small market share or not, they're simply not going to let the analog craze go unchallanged. It's bad for image.

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Post by slinkyjr » Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:27 pm

i agree that like the boring a** cars that we have to chose from, synth companies are no different, they fall into that ho-hum, staus quo category. if it aint broke dont fix it. which i think is pretty pathetic reasoning. i mean, it makes sense to the companies, but it cheats the consumers, in that, whatever happend to pushing the envelope? i guess the whole " were going to the moon and beyond" gung ho, type of cutting edge breakthrough mentailty is gone, somewhat. i do still like the idea of wireless MIDI, though.
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Post by Box » Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:05 pm

oceanbourne wrote:Exactly. When I lived in Savannah, Georgia, the keyboard dude at the local music story explained to me that they had a devil of a time selling the V-synth they got in and their Karmas all went on sale at really low prices too because they were not moving. Now, imagine a real analog synth in there . . .

He said on the other hand, what he sells day in and day out is Tritons and Motifs. The market in Savannah is mainly hip-hop, churches, and soul music . . . if the ROMpler can make one or two Moogish lead sounds, a decent Hammond set of organ sounds, a piano that's not too horrid and a bunch of drum sounds he can sell it.
Differnt strokes for differnt folks. It just depends on location as to how much a particular item will sell. It's the people around that area and their interests. For example, hatchbacks. Really popular over in Europe; companies don't even bother trying to sell in U.S. for the most part. I personally would rather have an Andromeda or a Prophet '08 over a Fantom, Triton, or Motif; cause the Andromeda and Prophet fit my interests and musical style more than the workstations. I'm sure the Prophet will have decent sales. Will it be up to par with workstation sales? Most likely not; have a better chance of h**l freezing over. It all has to do with supply and demand; more or less of the demand part. :P
Last edited by Box on Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Dave Bryce » Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:07 pm

Mixolydian wrote: I think someone in Japan is working on one. Japan has an interesting way of targeting and securing market share amongst Japnese owned businesses, so I'd say at least one of them is working on a polyphonic analog. I doubt that's it's anything like the new Prophet with it's all analog signal path, but rather something simpler, something with DCOs and digital everything else borrowed from an existing synth. Small market share or not, they're simply not going to let the analog craze go unchallanged. It's bad for image.
It ain't about image...it's about raw dollars.

I had this same argument with Alesis upper management during Andromeda's development, and I contended then (and still do) that for a company heavily invested in modeling technology to make an RA synth would basically involve them saying that their VA technology isn't good enough. I'd be surprised if any of them were to do that....
StepLogik wrote:the big 3 have all of their R&D into DSP - not analogue electronics. They would have to completely shift gears in order to design, tool up, and manufacturer an analogue synth.

We can all dream of a new analogue Jupiter-10 or a CS-90 but its never going to happen.
I'm inclined to agree.

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Post by redchapterjubilee » Sun Aug 26, 2007 5:25 pm

There's really no need for them to when the market is already served better by other manufacturers. And while a lot of us on here are really excited about the new real analogs how many of us can really afford them? I'd love to have a Prophet 08 but $2k is way out of my league. And I would daresay that $2k is probably as cheap as a knobby real analog poly can cost. I wonder how many PEK's have sold. More than five figures?
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Post by jko » Sun Aug 26, 2007 7:17 pm

As people have said previously though, there does seem to be a different way of looking at the size of the potential market.

Many synth users are those multi-purpose users who need generic sounds for their church, jazz and soul band, classical emulations etc. On the other hand a large group are what what people in an earlier discussion called "potential analog buyers" ; that is, they're involved in the large parts of modern popular music that are focused on specifically, explicitly electronic (often pseudo-analog ) sound ; from house to rave to general electronica to 'trip-hop' to ambient etc. This is a large market that's currently taken up particularly with VA synths and software.

A lot of those buyers are open to analog sound, aware of it and particularly interested in it, but also want the modern functionality and playability they find with VAs and software. It seems to me that if DCI can sell a good-sounding 8-DCO synth for $2000, it would be perfectly possible to make a 6 DCO-synth for $1500 to $2000 ; which is less than the price of some current VAs.

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Post by steveman » Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:54 pm

jko wrote: It seems to me that if DCI can sell a good-sounding 8-DCO synth for $2000, it would be perfectly possible to make a 6 DCO-synth for $1500 to $2000 ; which is less than the price of some current VAs.
Why would it cost that little? The maths just doesn't work like that. It would save 4 DCOs and 2 VCFs, the rest - keyboard, software, casing, R&D, manufacturing etc would be the same. Savings would be minimal. By that logic a mono P-8 would be $250 - dream on :)

All of those wishing the big 3 to come back into analogue need to stop and think what it would do to the likes of DSI, Moog and the other niche companies - it's probably the last thing they'd want.

Dave Bryce made a good point, any of the big 3 making an RA would be an admittance that their VA's weren't as good as they claimed.

Let's leave it to the little guys :)

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Post by JUGEL » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:02 pm

CGI Rules ... go digital go! CGI rules ... go digital go!

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Post by Jazzpunk » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:11 pm

Looking to the 'big 3' for quality kit is like looking to MTV for quality music. Money rules and the masses can't tell the difference!

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Post by OriginalJambo » Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:51 am

steveman wrote:Let's leave it to the little guys :)
Amen.

If you want analogue KORGs, Yammies and Rolands there are plenty on the market. Or wait, aren't they worth the money? ;)

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Post by Pete » Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:55 am

If only Moog would start building the exact products that are on my wish list.

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Post by Stab Frenzy » Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:36 am

Jazzpunk wrote:Looking to the 'big 3' for quality kit is like looking to MTV for quality music. Money rules and the masses can't tell the difference!
You've never played a V-Synth then... :)

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Post by jko » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:06 am

<Why would it cost that little?>

Regardless of the level of reduction, you would expect the final price to be down on $2000. I think the more striking point I perhaps should have said first , though, is that at $2000 the PO8 is already competing with a new virus ti ; well done to dsi.

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