otto wrote:There is only a finite amount of gold yet the prices change, drastically, all the time.
I think it's more accurate to say that there is a finite amount of refined gold. It will probably take many decades to mine the rest of the accessible gold ore on the planet. The price of gold fluctuates because gold is a commodity, like soybeans, oil, wheat, etc., and not a finished product like a car, cell phone, or a synthesizer--although those items all use gold as a raw material. The prices of commodities are determined by not only supply and demand, but also by traders who speculate on their value down the road--commodities futures. One of the main reasons why gasoline was so insanely expensive in 2008 was due to uncontrolled speculation. The best way I can describe the difference is that all the raw materials that it took to make a Stradivarius are still available, but Stradivari are damn expensive for obvious reasons.
Much like gold, synthesizers are a need not a want. Unlike gold, they are a liability as an investment, they will break down over time, many of the parts are no longer made. If you’re buying and sitting I hope you are accounting for upkeep. While you can’t buy an original (insert synth here) there are viable new options in analog and there comes a point when old synth just isn’t worth it.
The housing market will rebound and climb, the population continues to grow. There were factors that cause the housing boom but that’s not to say there aren’t factors that caused the synth boom as well that might be tames or roll off down the line.
All that said, if I had to guess I think vintage synths will continue to rise in price over the years but I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it turns to a more gradual pace. One issue that makes it even harder to know is that prices are based a little bit more on a world economy than any given economy. I usually make more money off of synths on ebay if I am willing to ship abroad.
So much of S & D depends on perception. The perceived rarity of a synth will almost certainly increase its value. I've read that there were only 40 Roland System 700s made. Hans Zimmer bought one a while ago for a reported price of $51K. Admittedly, that's a somewhat extreme value, but I'll bet if he hadn't bought it, someone else would have.
I agree "Supply and Demand 101" is simplistic, but as far as I can see, it's accurate.